2025: FG Records Revenue Shortfall in Excess of 70 percent- Edun.

Wale Edun, Finance Minister.

A major revenue gap has scutlled FG’s revenue projections this.

Ɓy Olukemi Odoh

The Federal Government has recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year, with actual receipts falling far below budget projections, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has disclosed.

Speaking before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, Edun said the government anticipated total revenue of N40.8 trillion for the year, but current fiscal performance shows collected revenues are likely to end at approximately N10.7 trillion.

The N40.8 trillion target was set to support the N54.9 trillion “budget of restoration,” which is designed to stabilise Nigeria’s economy, bolster security, and lay the foundation for long-term prosperity. However, with the significant gap between projected and actual figures, the government’s capacity to fully fund critical components of the 2025 budget has been constrained.

According to Edun, the sharp shortfall in revenue is largely attributable to weak performance in the oil and gas sector. Specifically, earnings from Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax from oil and gas companies underperformed, and other revenue subheads also failed to meet expectations.

“Weak oil and gas earnings and underperformance across several revenue streams have significantly affected total federal revenues,” Edun told lawmakers during the committee session.

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The disclosure contrasts with remarks made earlier in the year by President Bola Tinubu, who had stated in September that the government had met its revenue target for the year, claiming that Nigeria had achieved its revenue goals by August without borrowing excessively. Edun’s remarks paint a different picture, revealing that revenue shortfalls have impeded full budget implementation.

In addition to the shortfall in revenue, Edun explained the Federal Government raised approximately N14.1 trillion through borrowing to help fund the 2025 budget. Combined with internally generated revenues, these inflows nevertheless fell far short of the total needed to cover the full budgeted expenditure

Despite the fiscal gap, Edun told lawmakers that the government has continued to meet critical obligations through what he described as “prudent treasury management.” These obligations include payment of salaries, statutory transfers, and both domestic and foreign debt service obligations, which the minister said have been fulfilled as and when due.

Providing further insight into expenditure performance, Edun noted that capital releases to federal ministries, departments, and agencies have been lower than planned. Capital releases in 2024 reached N5.2 trillion out of a budgeted N7.1 trillion, representing a 73 per cent performance rate, while total capital expenditure stood at N11.1 trillion out of N13.7 trillion, or about 84 per cent execution.

Edun cautioned that future expenditure planning should be anchored on realistic revenue assumptions rather than ambitious projections that have historically failed to materialise. He stressed the need for flexibility in budget planning, given persistent challenges in revenue performance.